Publicatii - Politica La Est

FLASH 10 ianuarie 2016

Prin aderarea la NATO, Suedia va fi integrata Aliantei care include cele mai importante state pentru viitorul ei si astfel va putea sa aiba influenta asupra principalelor probleme de securitate care o privesc. Prin acest pas, un obiectiv care este si cel al actualei guvernari suedeze- “an in-depth defense and security cooperation with the Nordic and Baltic countries and the United States” – va fi atins, iar planificarea comuna pentru criza si razboi va fi facilitata. Pentru ca, iar aceasta mentiune trebuie citata: ” Integrated defense planning joint military capacity in the Baltic region, within the NATO framework, with Sweden and Finland are alliance members, would be the best way to discourage all forms of aggression in this area.” A se observa ca, vorbind despre Suedia, semnatarii apelului nu uita Finlanda, asumand aceeasi orientare fata de statul vecin de care o leaga o indelungata relatie comuna de securitate.

FLASH - 5 ianuarie 2016

Marea Chinei de Sud  - asadar un complex de securitate unde China revendica rolul de primus inter pares pe motive istorice si de necesitate de mare putere ,  risca sa devina teatrul unei competitii geopolitice intre giganti- intre China si SUA- cu ingredientele necesare, inclusiv cel nuclear. Vecinii Chinei, infricosati de ridicarea exdtraordinara a marelui lor vecin- cu care au divergente in acest areal in ce priveste suveranitatea asupra insulelor- sunt inclinati sa recurga din ce in ce mai mult la umbrela de descurajare/aparare  americana. 


Aceasta analiza mi-a fost sugerata de o notatie pe twitter a fostului ministru de Externe (si premier) al Suediei, Carl Bildt – este oare o redesenare a axelor infruntarii in Siria prin implicarea directa a Rusiei? Este important pentru ca are a evidentia daca este posibila racordarea Moscovei la  coalitia anti-ISIL formata de SUA; pe de alta parte, in acest fel se pot lua in  considerare si unele posibile puncte de intelegere atinse in cursul intrevederii Obama-Putin (28 septembrie)  si nu mai putin intrevazute linii de evolutii in dosare extrem de fierbinti ale situatiei internationale azi. Intre acestea, in mod clar, cel al Ucrainei si al migrantilor dinspre Sud ( in special Siria ) catre Europa.

Flash - 26 Septembrie

Recently Russia  announced that is deploying its own military forces in Syria, and Western media signaled that it is about  several tanks around an airport and some fighters ready to act alongside the Bashar Al-Assad’s forces. The West-even US President Obama had expressed this opinion - warned Russia that the future of Syria is without Assad. What is worthy to be mentioned in this context also is the fact that the recent Moscow’s move is corresponding to the decision of other great powers interested in the future of Syria, like France and UK. They  already begun to attack ISIL’s positions in that country ( of course, this Western powers’ move could and   should be connected with the not yet solved  EU crisis of the migrants waves). Are we in front of a new episode of the face-off between Russia and the West, which began with the Ukrainian crisis in 2014 or it is about anything else?

FLASH August 26, 2015

Last week, after an incident forged by the North, the legitimate answer of Seoul to the provoking  act  had attracted an ultimatum from the Pyongyang to the South  and the declaration of the semi-war level in the North.  Last Saturday at precise hour, South was called to stop their moves to answer to the  aggressive acts of the North ( artillery shelling towards the South positions and deployment to the sea of their submarines ) , on the contrary a hot war has to be launched.