Starea lumii azi ( primejdie ): 7 mai 2020 | publicatii - Politica La Est

Starea lumii azi ( primejdie ): 7 mai 2020

Mihail E. Ionescu
Evolutiile se precipita in ce priveste starea lumii ( sistemului). Evident, pentru cei mai putin  familiarizati de cativa ani competitia sistemica este la marginea fierberii intre SUA si China, definind evolutia sistemica mai mult decat realizam acum,  ca relatia China-SUA este predominant si definitorie pentru viitor.
Ziua de 7 mai consemneaza , pe de o parte, o pozitie clara , oficiala a Washingtonului relativ la relatia sa cu China, iar Casa Alba, prin presedintele SUA , Donald Trump , este limpede:
1.     “ Trump says coronavirus worse 'attack' than Pearl Harbor

Trump: 'This is worse than Pearl Harbor'
/.../Mr Trump said the outbreak had hit the US harder than the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor in World War Two, or the 9/11 attacks two decades ago.
His administration is weighing punitive actions against China over its early handling of the global emergency./…/
Since emerging in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December, the coronavirus is confirmed to have infected 1.2 million Americans, killing more than 73,000.
/…/Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on Wednesday / May 6, 2020/, Mr Trump said: "We went through the worst attack we've ever had on our country, this is worst attack we've ever had."This is worse than Pearl Harbor, this is worse than the World Trade Center. There's never been an attack like this."And it should have never happened. Could've been stopped at the source. Could've been stopped in China. It should've been stopped right at the source. And it wasn't."
Asked later by a reporter if he saw the pandemic as an actual act of war, Mr Trump indicated the outbreak was America's foe, rather than China.
‘I view the invisible enemy [coronavirus] as a war,’ he said. "I don't like how it got here, because it could have been stopped, but no, I view the invisible enemy like a war."
/…/The deepening rift between Washington and Beijing was further underscored on Wednesday as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo renewed his rhetoric against China, accusing it of covering up the outbreak. He stuck by his so far unsubstantiated charge that there is "enormous evidence" the coronavirus hatched in a Chinese laboratory, even while acknowledging there is still uncertainty about its origins.
‘Those statements are both true,’ America's top diplomat told the BBC. ‘We don't have certainty and there is significant evidence that it came from a lab.’/…/


2.     In acelasi timp, de cealalata parte a Atlanticului, in Europa, Uniunea Europeana lanseaza un apel catre intrega  lume pentru a grabi identificarea unui vacin salvator, astfel incat sanatatea lumii sa sa fie aisgurata curasnd si evitat ceea ce poate fi mai rau( worst case scenario ) :
World Leaders Join to Pledge $8 Billion for Vaccine as U.S. Goes It Alone
The E.U. organized a teleconference to raise money for coronavirus vaccine research, drawing contributions from around the world.

President Emmanuel Macron of France during the videoconference Monday.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff and Lara Jakes
May 4, 2020
BRUSSELS — Prime ministers, a king, a prince and Madonna all chipped in to an $8 billion pot to fund a coronavirus vaccine.
President Trump skipped the chance to contribute, with officials in his administration noting that the United States is pouring billions of dollars into its own research efforts.
A fund-raising conference on Monday organized by the European Union brought pledges from countries around the world — from Japan to Canada, Australia to Norway — to fund laboratories that have promising leads in developing and producing a vaccine.
For more than three hours, one by one, global leaders said a few words over video link and offered their nations' contribution, small or large, whatever they could muster. For Romania, it was $200,000. For Canada, $850 million.
It was a rare show of global leadership on the part of the Europeans, and a late-hour attempt at international coordination. Countries the world over have been pursuing divergent — and often competing — approaches to tackling the pandemic./…/” [2]

3.      Un  nou “ Razboi Rece”  ? 
Atentie: se pune problema unui viiktor pe termen mediu, pornindu-se de la ceea ce a fost afirmat ( vezi ante ) de presedintele Donald Trump.

Richard N. Haass
3 h/ 7 mai-n.n./
China bears enormous responsibility for the pandemic, but the fact that others, including Taiwan, S Korea, Singapore & Germany, have all fared far better than the US speaks volumes. We would be wiser to live by the dictum "Physician Heal Thyself" rather than scapegoat China.
Citează Tweetul

Gary Rosen
 “We can’t blame Beijing for our own lack of protective equipment, inability to produce adequate testing, uneven insistence on social distancing and limited capacity for contact tracing,” writes @RichardHaass.
… via @WSJ[3]

4 h
It would be a major strategic error to make confronting China the organizing principle of US foreign policy. To do so would be to misread a world in which the most significant threats come from global problems such as disease, climate change, & terrorism.

Don’t Start a New Cold War With China
Beijing poses some real challenges, but the most formidable threats the U.S. now faces are transnational problems like the coronavirus

Not joining global effort to produce a vaccine makes no sense. If there is a breakthrough, the US could find itself at the end of the que. Standing aloof also reduces the chance for a breakthrough. America 1st risks becoming America last & America alone./…/” [4]

4.     Presedintele Council, on Foreign relation din SUA, R. Haas, este increzator ca dominatia financiara globala a dolarului va asigura victoria ( suprematia ) SUA in viitor:

6 mai
The US accounts for under 5% of world population but for 1/3 of #Covid_19 confirmed cases & over 1/4 of related deaths. It was inevitable the virus would arrive here & do harm, but the human, eco costs reflect the failure of some local & state govts but above all the federal govt

5 mai
The World Bank is not the world's bank. The US comes closest. The $ is a de facto global currency, giving the US central bank enormous power & the US enormous advantage. But will this last as US debt mounts? If not, what then? "The World," out 5/12.

Dominatia globala a dolarului- nu ne indoim- da dreptate lui Haas ( in fond, demonstratia prof. Poast de la Chicago , asa cum am aratat  detaliat in cateva postari anterioare).
Dar, nu trebuie subestimata reactia chineza in domeniu, adica in universul se pare predominant al finatelor globale, dincolo de alti vectori ai puterii  statelor  ( militar, PIB , traditie istorica, coeziune nationala , hubris, etc. )   . Deja,  de la formarea, acum cativa ani , a unei banci globale , unde sunt afiliati si cativa dintre aliatii importanti ai SUA, China a facut o bresa , importanta si in crestere, in aceasta armura imprenabila pana atunci a hegemoniei sistemice a SUA .
Numai ca , cel putin la ora actuala, nu stim deloc cum vor evolua lucurile. Natura umana – a liderilor, determinate de propriile  impulsuri,  si  a ‘maselor’ in miscare impredictibila - va decide totul.  Modelele matematice de predictie foarte la moda in ‘ lumea ‘  de azi a coronavirusului -19  sunt fara effect.
Ce putem spune ?
Bun venit, in lumea competitiei , pe marginea razboiului ‘cald’ ,intre SUA si China .
 7 mai 2020


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