SUA SI CHINA: RAZBOI SAU PACE ?- 4 | publicatii - Politica La Est
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SUA SI CHINA: RAZBOI SAU PACE ?- 4

De la ‘capcana lui Tucidide’ la “era Covid-19”
 
Mihail E. Ionescu
 
DECIZIA DE INFRUNTARE  A CHINEI: MARTIE 2018 
 
Echipa  Trump , prin componenta sa , a aratat evident ca orientarea sa politica decisiva va fi sa reconstituie locul sistemic preeminent  al SUA amenintat de China.  In primul an si jumatate, cel mai de seama component al acestei echipe a fost Steve Bannon. Despre orientarea sa fata de China spune indeajuns un fragment dintr-un  articol aparut in  “ New York Times” , unde se relateaza o intalnire a lui Steve  Bannon cu  Henri Kissinger in august 2017, cand se plamadea - cum reiese din alte surse - momentul lansarii primei salve a lui Trump in razboiul tarifar cu China, semn al deschiderii dosarului confruntarii sistemice: “On a late August weekend in 2017, a week after he was forced out as President Trump’s chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon made a trip to the Connecticut country house of Henry A. Kissinger to talk about China. It was more of a pilgrimage, actually: the prophet of disruption seeking out the high priest of geopolitics to make the case that Mr. Kissinger’s view of America’s relationship with China was hopelessly out of date. The two men talked for hours in the sunroom, and while they enjoyed each other’s company, they did not, in the end, see eye to eye. ‘He agreed 100 percent with my analysis,’ Mr. Bannon recalled, ‘but he disagreed with my conclusions because they were too blunt force.’
Mr. Kissinger confirmed this account, saying he told his visitor that the United States and China must strive for the ‘partial cooperation of countries that by normal standards might be considered enemies. ’‘He has a different view,’ Mr. Kissinger added dryly. In the four decades since the United States re-established diplomatic ties with China, Mr. Kissinger and Mr. Bannon can be seen as bookends.”  
Nu este nevoie sa amintim ca , asa cum am aratat mai sus, un alt “uliu” al cabinetului american in privinta relatiei cu China se detasa a fi consilierul pentru comert Peter Navarro.  In relatarea care urmeaza, imprumutata tot analizei din ‘ New York Times”   avem o descriere sumara a pozitiilor asumate la Casa Alba in privinta raspunsului de dat Chinei ajunsa superputere competitoare a SUA:  “Among his /presedintelui-n.n/ advisers, there is a wide disparity in how they view the coming contest. Some, like Mr. Navarro, cast it as an epic struggle over who will control the commanding heights of the 21st-century economy. Others, like Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and the director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, have tried to put the brakes on Mr. Trump’s most belligerent trade moves. They feud constantly, and at times publicly, about who speaks for the president, leaving both Chinese officials and China experts in the United States confused about the direction of American policy. “  Presiunile asupra presedintelui Trump din partea echipei sale trebuie sa fi fost foarte puternice si cu orientari variate. Pregatirea acestor masuri de raspuns a fost cuprinzatoare. Din citatul de mai sus referitor la intalnirea Bannon- Kissinger a fost evident ca a fost consultat cel mai exigent si mai bun cunoscator atat al relatiei bilaterale si istoricului ei, cat si asupra eficientei uneia sau alteia dintre masurile avute in vedere. Faptul ca, asa cum reiese din scurta relatare, cei doi au cazut de acord asupra analizei stadiului actual al relatiei SUA-China- asadar ca deopotriva considera ca SUA  este partea perdanta-, ei au avut opinii diferite fata de raspunsul care trebuie dat. Kissinger asadar nu a agreat ceea ce , in cateva luni  se va materializa prin decizia Casei Albe, el propunand mentinerea unei “ partial cooperation” , necesara , subintelegem noi, sa mentina o stare de pace intre “ tari care dupa standardele normale pot fi considerate inamici ” . Sublinierea lui Kissinger este foarte importanta, pentru ca lasa sa se inteleaga ca raspunsul imaginat de S. Bannon era “ too blunt force”  ( prea contondente ca forta ) , ceea ce pentru batranul si experimentatul diplomat  si cunoscator al reactiilor elitei conducatoare chineze , putea duce la razboi . 
Trebuie descifrata si  ce inseamna si aceasta “forta prea contondonenta”  de care vorbeste Kissinger  dupa intalnirea cu Bannon. Naratiunea asumata de S. Bannon era bazata mai ales pe intepretarea  recentei mari strategii ‘One Belt, One Road’            ( OBOR) a Chinei lansate de presedintele Xi Jinping  in 2013 , o data cu actiunile de consolidare   a rolului conducator al partidului communist asupra societatii (  orientare , vazuta , printr-o alta lupa, ca o modalitate de intarire a controlului propriu al noului presedinte asupra opozitiei interne din partid, luandu-se in calcul si concomitenta campanile  publica lansata  impotriva coruptiei la “ varf” ). 
In cercurile Casei Albe , sub inraurirea lui Bannon , pozitia Chinei era ‘ citita’ astfel pana la indepartarea acestuia din echipa Trump ( august 2017 )  :” As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has dangled billions of dollars for infrastructure projects in dozens of countries, from Malaysia to Kenya. The Trump administration has condemned the loans as predatory and is trying to put together its own competing aid program. Mr. Trump’s instincts about China are not easy to pigeonhole. He speaks often about his friendship with Mr. Xi and admiringly of China’s economic success. His grievances are rooted in trade — in the conviction that China has been cheating the United States — rather than in Beijing’s ambitions in Asia or its repressive political system.”   Pozitia de ‘uliu’ a lui S. Bannon a fost , asa cum el insusi arata,  construita pe baza experientei sale ca ofiter in flota americana  din Pacific, dar si din lecturile , mai ales din perioada post-Razboi Rece, despre “ciocnirea civilizatiilor” si competitia intre modelele furnizate de fiecare in organizarea sociala’  politica si economica a societatilor .  “Mr. Bannon, who says his views of China were formed as a young Navy officer in the Pacific in the 1970s, speaks in almost apocalyptic terms, foreseeing a clash of civilizations. ‘It’s either going to be the Confucian, mercantilist model or the liberal democratic Western model handed down from Greece,’ he said.” 
 
Un capitol semnificativ in aceasta naratiune ,care nu trebuie subestimat,  a  intervenit in vara anului 2017, care a grabit probabil intalnirea dintre Kissinger si Bannon. In lunile iulie si august 2017, dupa ce Korea de Nord a lansat repetat rachete intercontinentale capabile sa poarte ogive nucleare, a intervenit o masiva criza intre SUA si acest stat. Responsabili politici si militari si numerosi experti americani au evidentiat ca aceste actiuni ale Koreei de Nord arata – si initiatorul vrea sa se stie acest lucru- capabilitatea de a lovi nuclear teritoriul SUA. In consecinta, Casa Alba a intervenit cu fermitate , iar prin tweet-urile sale din iulie-august 2017 in mod repetat presedintele Donald Trump a insistat la Beijing pentru a domoli spiritual belicos al Pyongyangului. Oricum, dosarul  Koreei de Nord va fi insotitor  in cursul primei faze a razboiului tarifar SUA – China in cursul anului 2018. Ceea ce spune indeajuns despre importanta arsenalului nuclear al dictarorului nord-coreean in calculele ambelor parti ale ‘ razboiului tarifar’. 
 Este o intrebare pe care o ridicam in acest puzzle care era in dezvoltare in Asia de est si Pacific in vara anului 2017: exista o presiune a ‘uliilor’ de la Casa Alba pentru abordarea rapida si decisiva a dosarului China, o data ce Beijingul a cautat sa arate prin comportamentul Koreei de Nord ( cele dintai lansari de rachete  nord-coreene au avut loc inca din primavara anului 2017 )   ca nu este singur in cazul unui conflict, dar si ca poate media un sfarsit al razboiului din peninsula Koreea , neincheiat din 1953 ?  Raspunsul la ea urmeaza sa-l aflam in fazele urmatoare ale confruntarii dintre cele doua superputeri .
 
 Donald Trump si Steve Bannon
Decizia
Nu stim  ce a determinat  alegerea momentului si forma de raspuns intiala – si care a fost procesul decisional in acest dosar- , dar in martie 2018 a fost lansat de catre  administratia Trump  “ razboiul tarifar”  cu China  , in desfasurarea caruia a intervenit un armistitiu in ianuarie 2020  in plina criza a Covid -19 .
 Oricum, documentarea accesibila public permite a fi jalonate urmatoarele evenimente principale  in  acest sens: aparitia in luna iulie 2017 a cartii lui Graham Alliosn , intitulata “ Destined to War”  , vizita facuta de Steve  Bannon lui  H  Kissinger in luna august acelasi an; demiterea lui Bannon de catre presedintele Trump in aceeasi luna, de presupus dupa intalnirea cu  Kissinger ; audierea la Senat a lui Graham Allison in noiembrie 2017 .
Tot in luna noiembrie ,  la 28 noiembrie dupa 74 de zile de la ultima ‘ performanta ‘ razboinica,  Koreea de Nord a lansat o noua racheta  c u raza intercontinentala, care a ridicat serioase temeri in SUA privind capacitatea statului comunist nord- coreean de a lovi nuclear teritoriul american . Asa cum a scris revista de specialitate a Pentagonului: “North Korea’s latest missile flew for nearly 1,000 km at an altitude of 4,500 km and stayed aloft for over 50 minutes before splashing down east of Japan. By contrast, its previous ICBMs, which were both tested in July, flew for 37 and 47 minutes, respectively. Indeed, North Korea has tested these missiles at lofted trajectories, firing them straight up into the air at steep angles to achieve a long flight time without circling the earth. (If the November 28 missile had been fired on a standard missile trajectory as opposed to a lofted one, it might have flown for 13,000 km or 8,100 miles.) This latest test allows North Korea to claim that it can hit the entire continental United States with a nuclear weapon.”  
 
In decembrie 2017 a aparut un studiu  al reputatei fundatii RAND   intitulat "U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World". Potrivit unei analize publice a celor 190 pagini ale acestui studiu  se arata ca autorii :  “discussed war scenarios with NATO-Russia involving the Baltic states. It also broke down a possible U.S.-China clash over Taiwan and gaps in existing U.S. capabilities. With those factors in mind, the Rand report's authors said that the nation's armed forces are ‘insufficiently trained and ready’ when looking at the active service components. That assessment comes despite the U.S. military presence in several regions of the world, and ongoing anti-terrorism missions and the war in Afghanistan, which is nearing its 20th year. “     Un rezumat al acestei analize a raportului evidentiaza urmatoarele concluzii Rand  : “America's military is outspending peer adversaries and 'needs to do better ; Capabilities of Russia and China have advanced so much that in certain situations that they could have a military edge over U.S. forces. ;  One of the authors of the report said the U.S. could still "move the needle back" through sustained investment in certain military capabilities. Also, Rand said the U.S. faces a nuclear and missile threat from North Korea which Washington and its Asian allies ‘lack satisfactory answers’ ."   Spus pe scurt, SUA, in pofida faptului depaseste China in cheltuieli militare cu o rata de 2,7 /1  si Rusia cu rata de 6/1 , “under plausible assumptions, lose the next war they are called upon to fight” Ceea ce probabil ca  a pus gruparea ‘uliilor’ din Casa Alba  in defensiva in  ce priveste calibrul raspunsului de dat Chinei .  Potrivit aceleiasi analize: “/…/China now has weapons and capabilities that would make it tougher for the U.S. to prevail in a battle to defend Taiwan against Beijing potentially retaking the breakaway island republic.It also said China has improved training and readiness of its forces and studied past American military campaigns, so it can develop strategies of its own that counter the U.S. power-projection capabilities.”  
In luna martie 2018 , zarurile au fost aruncate. SUA au declansat ceea ce s-a numit “ razboiul tarifar” cu China. Intr-un sir de notatii pe contul sau de twitter , pe durata unei perioade mai lungi , presedintele Trump a explicat decizia luata.  In primul dintre ele , presedintele Trump a negat faptul ca SUA ar fi in “ trade war” cu China, poate in scopul de a linisti atat Beijingul , cat si opinia publica mondiala: 
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
We are not in a trade war with China, that war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S. Now we have a Trade Deficit of $500 Billion a year, with Intellectual Property Theft of another $300 Billion. We cannot let this continue!
2:22 PM · Apr 4, 2018”  
Doua zile mai tarziu , Trump prezinta propria motivatie a deciziei luate, aratand ca adevarata cauza a majorarii  tarifelor asupra importurilor chinezesti in SUA  este inegalitatea  privind relatia SUA-China in detrimentul SUA , acceptata de WTO: 
@realDonaldTrump
China, which is a great economic power, is considered a Developing Nation within the World Trade Organization. They therefore get tremendous perks and advantages, especially over the U.S. Does anybody think this is fair. We were badly represented. The WTO is unfair to U.S.
5:32 PM · Apr 6, 2018”  
Iar, in continuare, a doua zi, avansand teza ca SUA nu mai poate accepta aceasta situatie de inechitate: 
@realDonaldTrump
The United States hasn’t had a Trade Surplus with China in 40 years. They must end unfair trade, take down barriers and charge only Reciprocal Tariffs. The U.S. is losing $500 Billion a year, and has been losing Billions of Dollars for decades. Cannot continue!
9:03 PM · Apr 7, 2018”  
Intr-un mod diplomatic, presedintele Trump arata ca relatiile dintre cele doua superputeri vor ramane aceleasi ( prietenesti ) la “ varf”  sperand , tocmai din aceasta cauza ,  si apeland la omologul sau in acest sens ,  ca China va accepta solicitarile SUA: 
@realDonaldTrump
President Xi and I will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!
3:12 PM · Apr 8, 2018”.   
Recurge si la un exemplu privind inegalitatea de tratament – de catre WTO- a unei operatii pe relatia SUA- China :
@realDonaldTrump
When a car is sent to the United States from China, there is a Tariff to be paid of 2 1/2%. When a car is sent to China from the United States, there is a Tariff to be paid of 25%. Does that sound like free or fair trade. No, it sounds like STUPID TRADE - going on for years!
1:03 PM · Apr 9, 2018 “. 
 
@realDonaldTrump
“ Very thankful for President Xi of China’s kind words on tariffs and automobile barriers...also, his enlightenment on intellectual property and technology transfers. We will make great progress together!
9:30 PM · Apr 10, 2018”  
In ziua urmatoare ,  indeamna echipa sa de la Casa Alba sa trateze relatia cu China cu calm , evidentiind ca alte dosare devin urgente, Koreea de Nord si Siria: 
@realDonaldTrump
So much Fake News about what is going on in the White House. Very calm and calculated with a big focus on open and fair trade with China, the coming North Korea meeting and, of course, the vicious gas attack in Syria. Feels great to have Bolton & Larry K on board. /…/
1:38 PM · Apr 11, 2018” 
 
Peste o saptamana , noteaza ca  China , dar si Rusia , incearca o manevra financiara, ceea ce considera inaccpetabil, deoarece ar obliga SUA sa mentina rata de dobanda ridicata: 
@realDonaldTrump
Russia and China are playing the Currency Devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest rates. Not acceptable! 
Peste alte cinci zile noteaza cu satisfactie ca decizia luata isi arata efectele benefice , Coreea de Nord fiind gata sa negocieze. 
3:31 PM · Apr 16, 2018·
@realDonaldTrump
A message from Kim Jong Un: ‘North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles.’ Also will ‘Shut down a nuclear test site in the country’s Northern Side to prove the vow to suspend nuclear tests.’ Progress being made for all!
6:22 AM · Apr 21, 2018” 
Meandrele diplomatiei, caracterul lor secret , pe masura marii infruntari pe care o relatam aici, ne impiedica sa intelegem ce mesaj transmite  presedintele Trump prin urmatoarea notatie .  Fie este vorba de  o interventie a Beijingului pe langa Koreea de Nord, asa cum se observa in precedentul tweet, unde  dictatorul Kim cedeaza, la solicitarea presedintelui Xi ,  in ce priveste lansarile de rachete intercontinentale, iar Washingtonul arata ca Beijingul  si-a manifestat influenta si-i multumeste  ; fie ca arata Beijingului ca a inteles influenta predominanta pe care o are pe langa liderul nord-coreean; fie ca acest lucru- influenta exercitata asupra comportamentului Koreei de Nord - nu are niciun impact asupra evolutiei dosarului bilateral privind tarifele de comert; fie toate la un loc sau si altceva asuns in arhive déjà penytru cel putin 30 de ani :  
@realDonaldTrump
 
Please do not forget the great help that my good friend, President Xi of China, has given to the United States, particularly at the Border of North Korea. Without him it would have been a much longer, tougher, process!”. 
2:50 PM · Apr 27, 2018·
Pentru ca , de obicei, a tintit prin notatiile sale pe twitter ceea ce a numit “fake news” promovate  indeosebi  , potrivit opiniei sale,  de cotidienele  “ New York Times “ si “ Washington Post ” , D. Trump a utilizat , in ultimul sau tweet  referitor la ‘dosarul asiatic’ din luna aprilie 2018,   o trimitere la ziarul ‘ falimentar’  din New York pentru a atrage atentia opiniei publice asupra unui articol care detalia succesele obtinute: 
@realDonaldTrump
Headline: “Kim Prepared to Cede Nuclear Weapons if U.S. Pledges Not to Invade” - from the Failing New York Times. Also, will shut down Nuclear Test Site in May.
5:59 AM · Apr 30, 2018” . 
Or, articolul respectiv arata ca liderii celor doua state coreene s-au intalnit in cu o zi inainte   la linia armistitiului din 1953, simbol al divizarii tarii , si  au decis sa puna capat razboiului , inclusiv mentionandu-se un angajament al Koreii de Nord de a “ denucleariza “ peninsula. Potrivit  articolului, negocierile ar urma sa fie dure : “A deal was signed between the two leaders which expressed a shared commitment to ending a seven-decade-long war and to the surprise of many “denuclearization of Korea”. It was specifically mentioned by South Korean officials to their US counterparts that making Kim agree to give up his nuclear edge would not be easy. They believed that it will take a gradual course of bilateral dialogue before even the term of ‘denuclearization’ starts becoming part of mutual press releases. 
But Kim Jong Un told President Moon of South Korea that his country will concede the nuclear weapons it possesses if the United States agreed to formally end the Korean War and promise not to invade his country, South Korean government said on Sunday. The response from Washington was not quite overwhelming given the history of North Korean discourse about such commitments in the past. “  
 
Panmunjon meeting between the two Korean states’ leaders- April 27, 2018
Intalnirea intre presedintii celor doua state coreene a fost cu adevarat un eveniment istoric,iar el a fost rezultatul foarte rapid al deciziei  Casei Albe din martie 2018 de a lansa ceea ce este consemnat azi ca  ‘trade war’ sau ‘tariff war’ intre SUA si China. Ca orice infruntare  indelungata , acest conflict commercial a avut suisuri si coborasuri- unele spectaculoase momente, precum intalnirile lui Trump cu Kim-, dar in esenta a fost o confruntare hegemonica in continuare in desfasurare si azi.  Asadar neincheiata. 
 
April 9, 2020 

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