UK: ‘No Deal’ BREXIT or General Elections ? | publicatii - Politica La Est

UK: ‘No Deal’ BREXIT or General Elections ?

Mihail E. Ionescu
         According to the British system- which with that occasion has entered under the fire of criticism for being undemocratic ( ?!?) – Boris Johnson has become PM. Tory Party maintained the helm of UK and had it itsa disposal the way of that country to the future. Especially important in that moment, knowing that Brexit should be solved in accordance with the result of the June 2016 referendum, and also to begin to reinstate the economic ( and not only ) relationship with EU- with or without deal – and also with other states in the system to tackle with the consequences of leaving EU.
         On July 24 Bojo was invested by the Queen Elisabeth in the chair of PM and the following day he has delivered his inaugural speech in front of the Commons .  In  “ The Spectator”  it was  published the same day the evaluation of what Boris Johnson said. He stated from the very beginnings that “our mission is to deliver Brexit on the 31st of October for the purpose of uniting and re-energising our great United Kingdom and making this country the greatest place on earth. And when I say the greatest place on earth, I’m conscious that some may accuse me of hyperbole. But it is useful to imagine the trajectory on which we could now be embarked.”

The general tone of the speech has been over-optimistic: “He declared Britain to be on the cusp of 'a golden age', and offered a vision of what the country would be like in 2050.”  The vision of 2050 UK is a proof of the the new PM enthusiasm “By 2050 it is more than possible that the United Kingdom will be the greatest and most prosperous economy in Europe – at the centre of a new network of trade deals that we have pioneered. /.../our country will boast the most formidable transport and technological connectivity on the planet. By unleashing the productive power of the whole United Kingdom – not just of London and the South East but of every corner of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – we will have closed forever the productivity gap and seen to it that no town is left behind ever again;/.../ . Our children and grandchildren will be living longer, happier, healthier, wealthier lives./.../We will be the home of electric vehicles – cars, even planes, powered by British made battery technology being developed right here, right now. We will have the freeports to revitalise our coastal communities, a bioscience sector liberated from anti genetic modification rules, blight-resistant crops that will feed the world – and the satellite and earth observation systems that are the envy of the world. We will be the seedbed for the most exciting and most dynamic business investments on the planet.Our Constitutional settlement, our United Kingdom will be firm, will be secure. Our Union of nations beyond question. Our democracy robust. Our future clean, green, prosperous, united, confident, ambitious – this my friends is the prize, more still the responsibility that it falls on us to fulfil” . [1]
          According to Boris, Tory Party is the party of the people in  comparison with the Labor Party: “We are the party of many, they are the party of the few. They will take this country backwards. We will take it forward” .  He was very tough on the Left leader. Jeremy Corbyn being  accused  “for having being paid by Press TV, Iran’s propaganda channel, and for siding with ‘the Mullahs of Tehran’. He mocked Corbyn for saying Labor would campaign for Remain in a second referendum.” As a conclusion, the respected newspaper writes: “It's hard not to see a general election campaign taking shape, even on Johnson's first day in the job. He might be busy appointing his junior ministers this evening, but even this reshuffle shows that the new Prime Minister is thinking as much about going to the country as he is about running it.” [2]
         It seems that the above inserted  conclusion – that UK is going fastto a general election -is not being expressed  only by that newspaper. Being guided by the twitter account of Francois Heisbourg [3] to a thread of nine tweets written by Nicholas Drummond, British expert in defense policy and former UK  Army officer. He wrote:

       @nicholadrummond Jul 24
Today has been one of the most "interesting" days in politics I can remember. It seemed bizarre that someone who spoke so much about party unity, could make so many new enemies so quickly by sacking such a large number competent serving cabinet ministers. (1 of 9)
 @nicholadrummond Jul 24
But, this was not an irresponsible or random act motivated by revenge. It seems to be part of a deliberate strategy designed to provoke Conservative colleagues, Labour and LibDem MPs alike, to precipitate a vote of no confidence and force a snap General Election. (2 of 9)
     @nicholadrummond Jul 24
I expect this election to be held as quickly as possible. And I expect @Nigel_Farage to be brought on-side as an ally to support Boris's objectives. The Conservatives will be the Party for Brexit while Labour and the LibDems will be the parties for Remain. (3 of 9)
     @nicholadrummond Jul 24
Clearly, this is an election that Boris thinks he can win. In effect, it will be a 2nd Referendum. If he wins, and negotiations with the EU remain unfruitful, he will assume he has a mandate to leave without a deal. Either way, he will have cleared the Brexit logjam. (4 of 9)
     @nicholadrummond Jul 24
But, what happens if Boris has miscalculated? What happens if voters don't vote the way he thinks they will? What happens if a fed-up electorate decides to put a stick in wheels of the entire UK political system? We could end up with our third Prime Minister this year. (5 of 9)
 @nicholadrummond Jul 24
While an outright Labour victory may be unlikely, the nightmare scenario is another Hung Parliament that results in a Coalition Government that lacks the strength and cohesion to get any kind of deal through Parliament. (6 of 9)
      @nicholadrummond Jul 24
More than anything, it is further uncertainty and indecision that is most likely to cause the Electorate to lose confidence in the existing system and seek to destroy it. So, Boris is adopting an extremely bold strategy, but also an extremely risky one. (7 of 9)
      @nicholadrummond Jul 24
If Boris is successful, he will be the man of the moment. But if he fails, then, like David Cameron his political career will be over and the Conservatives will be unlikely to see power again for years to come. (8 of 9)
I cannot decide whether Boris's radical plan is reckless or ingenious. Nor can I decide whether a more conciliatory approach from @Jeremy_Hunt might achieve the same goals, but a better long-term relationship with the EU. As I say, interesting times. (9 of 9).
         It is not so easy to bet between a ‘risky game’   of Bojo- general elections which he is confident to be win by Tory party- and the classical political  road of renewing negotiations with EU for a new ‘ withdrawal agreement’ ( of course EU being warned that there is October 31 2019 deadline for a ‘ no deal’ Brexit already announced by the new PM ). It is clear  that Boris Johnson is playing in the following months his entire political career. He will disappear politically- like David Cameron who proposed the referendum on Brexit- if he failed to win the general elections ; the same fate is waiting for him if he will not leave EU – deal of not with EU-on the end of October. In that case he will have to tackle with the consequences of this unprecedented action of UK , some of being up to now without historical parallels. Unity of UK, economic unknown results, social and political upheavals/ disturbances which will accompany the entire leaving EU process.
         Of course, interesting times for London government  , for UK in its entirety. And also for the European Union.
July, 26, 2019
[2] Isabel Hardman, Evening Blend, in “ The Spectator” , July 25, 2019
[3] the famous strategist guided us to a tweets thread: “Interesting thread. Fasten your seatbelts, folks”


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