Mai 2019- Starea Europei si a lumii -2 | publicatii - Politica La Est

Mai 2019- Starea Europei si a lumii -2

Dr. Mihail E. Ionescu
            De vreo 2-3 ani un spectru bantuie Europa. Este iliberalismul , termen lansat  de premierul Ungariei,Victor Orban, care in traducere libera ar vrea sa insemne un liberalism limitat, restrictionat . Ca sintagma a fost astfel aleasa incat sa nu nege liberalismul in mod deschis- mai precis, neo-liberalismul- poate fi explicat prin pragmatism: Ungaria , membra a a UE,  organizatie formatata pe valori neoliberale, evita sa irite astfel incat sa fie exclusa din randurile ei, statut  de benficiile caruia Budapesta are  atat de multa nevoie. Pragmatismul nu a scutit insa autorul ei de avataruri: explicatii cerute de Comisia Europeana, apoi de Parlamentul European, fiind in final, inca neatins integral, parcursa o cale  de  penalizare  nu doar a politicianului  si partidului pe care il conduce , dar si a Ungariei.
            Ce se afirma la conferinta de la Tallin ca ar fi ‘iliberalismul’?  
            In ziua de 18 mai la pranz, atunci cand a fost panelul intitulat “The Siren Calls of Populism: The Roots of Frustration at the Dawn of the EP Elections “, participantii erau chemati de organizatori sa raspunda unor intrebari tot mai prezente azi in viata politica europeana: “  Europe’s populations increasingly distrust leaders who have been unable to deliver answers to their worries, and Eurosceptics and populist movements are projected to gain. What are the roots of these feelings? What drives populism in Europe?  Why do so many feel that they are not represented by their governments? Today, when the liberal order no longer seems inevitable, what mistakes have been made by leaders? And more importantly, what lessons have been learned? What results can we expect from the EP elections and what will be the impact on the European Union and Europe more widely? How might frustration be transformed into new hope and trust? How can populations be persuaded to ignore the siren calls of populist slogans? “  .  Curand dupa deschiderea panelului, discutia  s-a concentrat  rapid in jurul acestei teme a iliberalismului, sub impactul celor afirmate de  ministrul ungur  S. Takacs , responsabil in guvernul de la Budapesta de relatiile cu UE. Reactiile pe twitter la spusele acestuia vor da imediat masura trendului general afirmat de reuniune.  Mai intai propria notatie pe twitter a ministrului ungur:
Today I took part in a panel discussion at #LennartMeriConference2019 w/ Minister Lajcak. The issue of immigration will continue to define #European politics after the #elections. The question is how we respond. Liberals cannot monopolize the truth and the future of Europe.”[1]
 Acum reactiile :
ICDS Tallinn- @ICDS_Tallinn
Discussion drifts to the status of Hungarian democracy and media landscape. Criticism from the floor. Cannot be illiberal and democracy at the same time, this is like being ‘an atheist church’ “ .[2]
Matthias Kolb @matikolb
„At #LennartMeriConference2019 @Lambsdorff of @fdp tells @_SzabolcsTakacs of #Orban government that ‚illiberal democracy’ cannot work:  ‚It is like a vegetarian slaughterhouse’. It needs minority rights, media freedom, no kicking-out of independent universities like #CEU #Hungary[3]
Helga Kalm @helgakalm
„Nationalism is hopeless when it comes to policy because it is hopeless in delivering results... but it’s very successful in politics ” .[4]
FrancescaMarino @francescam63
Szabolcs Takacs, Hungarian Minister if EU policies wants to drag us back of couple of hundred years and ‘fight’ radical Islam with radical Christianity. Mr. Takacs, we separated State from religion long time ago and don’t want to go back”.[5] 
FrancescaMarino @francescam63
Morning panel at #LennartMeriConference2019 . Where we learn from the neo-fascist Hungaryan Minister for EU policy that Europe should rely on ‘christian’ roots and its values and ‘fight’ immigration and terrorism (are they the same?) Feeling like to stand up and sing Bella Ciao”.[6]
      Rachel Dobbs- @ItsRachelDobbs May 18
More from @_SzabolcsTakacs: “Hungary has not moved away from the EPP, the EPP have moved away from the EPP. They have gone too far to the left /.../Goes on to say that sometimes populists get into power and they lose this axis to talk about the people vs elites, because they become the elites. Then, in most cases, they transnationalise this divide and make it external to the state, eg. Brussels.”[7]
Lauri Luht @LauriLuht
"’How would Christ think about migration? Probably different than Hungarian government’.  Excellent panel about populism and especially great comments made by @A_SHEKH0VTS0V[8]
Rachel Dobbs @ItsRachelDobbs
„Conversation about the importance Hungary places on Christian values & its negative treatment of refugees has devolved, literally, into What Would Jesus Do?”  [9]
AkilnathanLogeswaran @VoteAkil
Best counter comes from @A_SHEKH0VTS0V at the #LennartMeriConference2019 about when politicians call themselves ‚Christian Democratic’ . He says then you would actually have to go back to think about what Jesus Christ would think about migrants. Certainly not what Hungary does”.[10]
C. Stelzenmüller Retweeted Jill Dougherty
„Bone-dry retort to Hungarian speaker by @A_SHEKH0VTS0V: don’t think Jesus would have talked about migration in this way. Warm applause from audience #LennartMeriConference2019
C. Stelzenmüller added,
Jill Dougherty- @jillrussia
Hungary's Min. of State for EU policies says P.M. #Orban and #Trump agree on stopping immigration, protecting Christian nations, fighting terrorism and NATO. #LennartMeriConference2019 “.[11]
 Răspuns către @KuusikPiret
“First time I've listened to a political panel discussion which could claim the title "What would Jesus have said?".[12]
            Este interesant de observat ca, in acelasi timp cu desfasurarea la Tallin a panelului sus-amintit, sambata 18 mai, la Viena se declansa o criza politica de proportii , prilejuit de un  video devenit cu rapiditate viral pe retelele de socializare , care a atras atentia participantilor. Anume, vicecancelarul austriac, Strache, reprezentant al partidului de extrema dreapta din coalitia condusa de  S. Kurz, era vizibil in amintitul video cand accepta  finantari din partea unui intermediar rus inainte de alegerile legislative precedente. Acum stim ca aceasta criza s-a sfarsit in cateva zile cu demisia guvernului si numirea unui nou cancelar care sa pregateasca anticipatele de la inceputul toamnei. Intrucat era implicat in scandalul politic un reprezentant al fortelor politice opuse valorilor neoliberale ale UE, participantii au evidentiat numaidecat acest lucru:
AkilnathanLogeswaran  @VoteAkil
„Hear, hear, Europe.. Goodbye #Strache. Goodbye experiment to include (neo)-fascist parties into the government.. #LennartMeriConference2019
5:03 AM - 18 May 2019 from Tallinn, Estonia.[13]
Benjamin Bathke @BenjaminBathke
“ ‘What we see in #Austria is a dagger in the heart of approach of taming populists in European governments,’ says @Economist's Berlin bureau chief @tom_nuttall -2:56 AM - 18 May 2019” .[14]
            Astfel ca a fost un nimerit prilej pentru cei implicati in dezbatere – si nu doar la acest panel, pentru ca in precedentele sau cele urmatoare discutiile pe marginea acestui dosar al iliberalismului au fost facute destule comentarii -  sa emita ipoteze si sa afirme deschis care este fermentul acestor curente , marginale sau nu , fie ca le numim ‘populism’ sau ‘nationalism’, ‘iliberalism’ sau ‘extrema dreapta’:
Helga Kalm‏ @helgakalm
Nationalism is hopeless when it comes to policy because it is hopeless in delivering results... but it’s very successful in politics #LennartMeriConference2019 “.[15]
AkilnathanLogeswaran‏ @VoteAkil
Great statement by @A_SHEKH0VTS0V: "The far-right is asking the right questions, but does not necessarily provide the right answers." [16]
Maris Hellrand‏ @marishellrand  May 18
The winners of globalisation broke the contract with the losers twice: financial crisis and migration crisis. @antonshekhovtsov[17]
Anton Shekhovtsov @A_SHEKH0VTS0V
“ Confused about the evolving “Russia crisis” in #Austria and the Austrian far right’s readiness to sell out to a foreign, non-European power? Then read my book that deals with the relation between Russian actors and the European far right./ Russia and the Western Far Right: Tango Noir, Routledge –n.n./
“The growing influence of Russia on the Western far right has been much discussed in the media recently. This book is the first detailed inquiry into what has been a neglected but critically important.”.[18]
Maris Hellrand Retweeted
 Tom Nuttall @tom_nuttall
"The Austrian experience suggests that bringing dodgy parties into government does not make them less dodgy. It makes government dodgier." [19]
Jill Dougherty @jillrussia[20]
The Far Right are "merchants of fear....They call themselves patriots, but they are the first to sell out the interests of their country." Anton Shekhovtsov “

ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn[21]
Fringe parties are more effective in using digital tools. This makes them look bigger than they are. And we haven’t figured out what does it mean for the future of the democracy says@apolyakova
Jill Dougherty @jillrussia
Populism defined: not an ideology, it's more a language of dividing people into two groups: 1. ‘common people’ and 2. ‘corrupt elite.’[22]
Helga Kalm‏  @helgakalm May 18
Another great point now by Anton Shekhovtsov : when the populist parties get to power they can no longer blame the elite for everything that is wrong because they are the elite so they use Brussels to push the us vs them theme” .[23]
Rachel Dobbs‏  @ItsRachelDobbs
Goes on to say that sometimes populists get into power and they lose this axis to talk about the people vs elites, because they become the elites. Then, in most cases, they transnationalise this divide and make it external to the state, eg. Brussels.” [24]
Great point by @tom_nuttall European elections are more about fragmentation than populism vs liberalism!” [25]
            In timp ce la Tallin erau dezbatute aceste chestiuni care reflecta  o adanca framantare a UE in ultimii ani, la Viena era anuntata o conferinta de presa a cancelarului , iar in Italia extrema dreapta/populistii/ nationalistii, Brexistii , reunite in alta conferinta, nu aratau deloc semne ca lucrurile se indreapta spre un fagas traditional ( adica dominanta partidelor ‘mainstream’ ) , respectiv  o disparitie graduala a acestor fenomene  socotite pana acum periferice , dar azi in  avanscena politica, fie si numai prin zgomot, daca nu prin majoritate electorala . Iata ce consemna chiar in timpul desfasurarii panelului la Tallin :
 “ At awkwardly timed populist internationale event w/ Salvini in Milan, Marine Le Pen won't comment on Strache scandal - but says FPOe voters won't ‘disappear’ ". 11:01 AM · May 18, 2019
Quote Tweet
« Marine Le Pen botte en touche. « Nous ne nous exprimerons pas avant d’avoir les explications de M. Strache » puis rappelle que « le FPÖ a réuni 25% des électeurs » : « quelque soit la véracité de ces accusations, cela ne les fait pas disparaître. »[26]
            Poate ca aceasta inversunare in opozitie a indemnat pe un participant la panel sa consemneze spusele minstrului de externe al Slovaciei, indemnand la prudenta si liniste :
Europe is going through a crisis of confidence at the moment. And I would be cautious about labeling too much. We may alienate our people even more.” - at #LennartMeriConference2019 on the siren calls of populism” .[27]
            Poate nu putini s-au gandit ceea ce spusese presedinta estoniana in seara precedenta in alocutiunea sa, anume :
« Looking beyond the waves of populism, protectionism and unilateralism inside the #EU we see, that the sea may not be the calmest of seas, but there`s no major storm. » [28]
            Asadar, reuniunea a dat un  diagnostic exact al starii Europei ( Uniunii Europene ) de azi. Pe fondul temerii constante de mai bine de patru ani de revitalizarea la exponential a experientei din vara-toamna anului 2015, cand peste 1 million de sirieni si alti orientali au bejenit pasnic spre Europa prin Turcia , apoi, prin Libia peste Mediterana din Africa, s-a cristalizat o reformatare a peisajului politic. Partidele traditionale ( mainstream ) au inceput sa piarda din influenta in electoratului, care s-a indreptat masiv catre alte partide- auto-prezentate ca gardieni ai identitatii nationale si aparatoare  impotriva invaziei migrantilor - sau au ingrosat randurile altora existente, dar cu orientare nationalista sau de extrema dreapta. Astfel ca, in ajun de alegeri europene generale pentru viitorul Parlament ( reuniunea de la Tallin a avut cu o saptamana inainte de aceste prezentari la urne ale cetatenilor UE, in in intervalul 23-26 mai 2019 ), asemenea trenduri , sa le spunem ‘ideologice’ inrudite iliberalismului ,pana atunci inregistrate starneau temeri serioase privind rezultatul scrutinului.
            Chiar daca opiniile exprimate la Tallin  pedaleaza amplu pe mai vechea naratiune a consolidarii valorilor neo-liberale in ansamblul UE- care au fost majoritare in ansamblul reuniunii  -, au fost exprimate si pozitii –  de la  cel mai inalt nivel - care aratau ca in UE nu este un «  major storm » in aceasta perspectiva ( presedinta estoniana Kersti Kaljulaid ) , dar ca  exista o «  criza de incredere » la nivelul organizatiei europene ( ministrul de Externe al Slovaciei ). Asadar, o prudenta a « varfurilor » politice  fata de un fond de zgomot foarte persistent de atac al opozitiei nationaliste/populiste/ extremei drepte, expresie a vechii naratiuni neoliberale adanc uzata si inradacinata in segmentul expertilor. Asa se explica si reactiile furibunde la iliberalism- chiar acuzatii de fascism- sau ironiile foarte dese la adresa afirmatiei «  ce ar fi gandit Isus ? «  riscata de un ministru ungur in reuniune ; anume ca o inertie sufocanta a mai vechii naratiuni neoliberale in randurile expertilor care nu ar admite nicio corijare. La urma urmei, viata , realitatea au caile lor ascunse de evolutie si nu raman niciodata incremenite in proiecte indelungate fara sa aduca rafinari/ corijari/ schimbari unor norme/doctrine/opinii  indelung incetatenite. Istoria ne sta martor ca asa stau lucrurile.
            Daca din aceasta parte, cel putin la o privire superficiala a rezultatelor alegerilor parlamentare europene- care se cer atent analizate si o vom face intr-o viitoare analiza- arata ca , desi Europa este pandita de noile curente extra-mainstream, cu conotatie nationalist-populista identitara, rezilienta  vechilor asezaminte neoliberale inca este puternica . Cat timp ? Greu de spus. Victoria lor totala este insa exclusa si , ceea ce inseamna adevarata politica ( pentru ca o dezagregare a UE pe aceasta chestiune este oricand posibila ) , va fi vorba de un compromis intr-un viitor nerprecizat. Compromisul va trebui exersat nu pe paradigma «  vitezelor multiple », ci intre Est si Vest pe falia traditionala continentala.
            In acest context va trebui sa aratam ce s-a spus in legatura cu Rusia si China si noua formatare geopolitica a lumii  la reuniunea de la Tallin ( urmeaza partea 3-a a acestui text ).  


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