FLASH 13 august 2015 | publicatii - Politica La Est
map-of-the-world-.jpg

FLASH 13 august 2015

Urmarind twitter-ul- care are marele dar de a te tine la current cu evenimentele breaking news, admirabila retea fiind in masura sa-ti ofere , inainte de oricine/orice altcineva/altceva, stirile cele mai proaspete- am dat, in dimineata acestei zile,  de o semnalare care mi-a atras imediat atentia. Paul Niland, un twitterist ( exista oare in limba romana cuvantul ? ) foarte informat, a retransmis o stire preluata de pe @EuromaidanPR  potrivit careia “ #Russia's proxies fired upon Ukr troops 152 times on 12 Aug - highest number in last weeks, fired Grad MRLS 15 times” . Acelasi P. Niland a retransmis o alta stire conexa, cu cateva ore mai devreme aflata pe twitter-ul @AlexPanchenko2 care mentiona ca “Fierce #Russia artillery strikes reported NOW in #Ukraine-held #Dzerzhynsk, #Starognativka etc.” . Urmarind fluxul acestor stiri, importante neindoios avand in vedere ca proximitatea Ucrainei cu Romania ne face foarte sensibli la orice evolutie spre “fierbinte” a complexului “Minsk-2”- sa numim astfel acordul care a stabilit incetarea focului intre separatistii rusi si fortele guvernamentale ucrainene in Estul acestei tari ( Donbass) in februarie 2015-, am identificat corespondentul Andrij Dobriansky ( twitter :  @tufkaa ) care comunica in dimineata zilei de ieri ca “Must read: Russia advances, Ukraine repels, as Putin lets loose the guns of August and the West  looks on thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/… 8:34 AM - 12 Aug 2015 “. Ceea ce am si facut.
 
         Nu doar trimiterea la celebra carte a Barbarei Tuchman, “ Tunurile din August”, care a reconstituit magistral criza premergatoare declansarii Primului Razboi Mondial in august 2014 , m-a facut sa accesez imediat articolul indicat. Dar, in ultimele zile, pe fondul unei intense activitati diplomatice consacrate crizei din Siria si –in special privind soarta  regimului Assad din aceasta tara – in care au fost implicate Russia, Arabia Saudita si SUA, dar si Turcia , au fost semnalate ciocniri violente pe linia de contact intre separatistii rusi si fortele ucrainene din Donbass. Iar unii comentatori nu s-au sfiit sa mentioneze ca  Rusia ar pregati o mare ofensiva in Ucraina tintind o solutie de forta crizei care dureaza de aproape doi ani deja. Asadar, iata ce m-a motivat sa scriu acest “Flash”: este oare Rusia gata sa abandoneze Minsk-2 si sa angajeze o noua ofensiva militara in Ucraina  ?
        
            Articolul semnalat (de @tufkaa )  din “ Daily Beast”  se intituleaza Ukraine’s Cold War Gets Hot as Combat Explodes in the Last 24 Hours , este semnat de Pierre Vaux  si  incepe prin a mentiona ca “Some of the most intense Russian-backed fighting in six months has occurred within the last 24 hours. But it’s where the flare-out has taken place that matters.”  Si arata apoi ca incepand de luni dimineata ( 10 august 2015) , potrivit surselor ucrainene, “ hundreds of Russian-backed fighters took part in an assault, supported by tanks and artillery fire, on positions near the village of Starognatovka, in the south of the Donetsk region. The attack was repelled and Ukrainian forces made their first territorial gains since February 10. Since then, heavy artillery and Grad rockets have rained down across this section of the front line.”  In aceeasi zi, minstrul de externe al Ucrainei a fost instruit de catre presedintele Porosenko “to arrange emergency consultations with the other members of the ‘Normandy Four’ — France, Germany, and Russia” . O zi mai tarziu, la 11 august , a fost randul OSCE sa mentioneze deteriorarea situatiei la linia de contact ruso-ucraineana: “An OSCE statement released Tuesday said that recent attacks on their Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), including Sunday’s orchestrated protests and torching of four OSCE vehicles in separatist-held Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as two recent incidents in which SMM personnel came under fire, are endangering the role of the SMM in assisting with the implementation of Minsk II.” Also, the same day, E. Buzhinsky, fost membru al Statului Major al armatei ruse pana in 2009, care conduce un think tank din Moscova, legat de oficialitati, a declarat BBC ca  orice depasire a linie de contact de catre fortele ucrainene constituie pretextul lansarii unui “full-scale military response from Russia”. Pentru a defini greutatea spuselor lui Buzhinky, articolul face urmatoarele precizari:  “ Buzhinsky has made extreme threats before, claiming in February this year that any delivery of lethal weaponry to Ukraine by the USA would be seen by the Kremlin as a ‘declaration of war.’ He has also been keen to spread the claim that any Western intervention in the Ukrainian conflict could trigger nuclear war, a remote possibility that has been taken in by some of the more hysterically inclined members of the Western media.The point of such statements is usually to scare off Westerners, to make them fear that any opposition to Russia’s plans may result in a nuclear holocaust. However, such high-profile individuals (and note here that Buzhinsky only retired from the General Staff in 2009) are likely used to disseminate specific political messages from the Kremlin, and the timing of Monday’s statement could well be a threat ahead of renewed military provocations in the Donbas.”
          In cursul luptelor desfasurate in dimineata de 10 august, forte militare ucrainene , care au respins incursiunile rusesti, au patruns dincolo de linia de  stabilita prin acrodul Minsk-2:“ In fact, by 6 a.m., Ukrainian troops had entered the separatist-held village of Novolaspa, around 8 kilometers east of Starognatovka, and were pushing out the Russian-backed fighters street by street. But then, having taken control of Novolaspa, Ukrainian troops were ordered to withdraw for fear of being seen as in violation of Minsk II.” Ulterior retragerii propriilor forte, forurile responsabile ucrainene au negat ca au depasit linia de contact. Pozitiile detinute de fortele ucrainene au continuat sa fie tinta unor bombardamente violente cu artilerie grea si rachete Grad ( luni si  marti, continuand si in ziua urmatoare ), la care ucrainenii au raspuns, inclusiv bombardand statul Telmanovo  detinut de catre separatisti . Autoritatile separatiste de aici au declarat ca au fost victime intre civili.
         Daca ciocnirile din aceasta arie a zonei de contact se dezvolta, iar avertismentul Buzhinsky se confirma atunci devine clar ca tinta strategica urmarita de partea rusa este orasul Mariupol. Soarta acestuia “ a city of enormous economic importance to the Donetsk region, would be grim. Mariupol/…/ is of not only symbolic but vital economic significance to the region, as both a port and vast centre for steel production. It’s also a necessary win for Moscow’s proxies if Russia is to ever establish a ‘land bridge’ from its own territory to illegally occupied and annexed Crimea.”  Ca acest lucru este probabil este demonstrat de faptul ca aceste ciocniri- cele mai puternice de la incheierea in februarie a acordului Minsk-2- sunt desfasurate in aceasta zona unde au fost observate concentrari masive de forte si blindate rusesti in ultimele luni, inclusiv a unei baze militare in the woods south of Sontsevo, complete with tanks, fuel bowsers and communications equipment. The speed and professionalism of the construction clearly indicates Russian military engineers’ work. The OSCE has also reported encountering military personnel in Russian uniforms in Petrovskoye, only a short distance north of Novolaspa.”  Alte evolutii militare in acest perimetru de infruntare, vecin unei comunicatii de importanta strategica – “To the west of Starognatovka, across sparsely inhabited fields, lies the Donetsk-Mariupol highway. Ukrainian troops hold most of this road, from Mariupol on the Azov coast up to separatist-held Yelenovka, south of Donetsk. Russia needs to push Ukrainian forces back from the river Kalmius and off the highway.”- ridica serioase semne de intrebare . Articolul se incheie : “Russia may not be about to assault Mariupol right now, but the months of military buildup, followed by Monday’s assault, not to speak of the near-daily shelling along this section of the front line, indicates that such an offensive is a serious possibility.”
         Prudenta autorului articolului este de inteles. Dar o corespondenta twitter (@mackaysuzie   )  scrie, comentand articolul mentionat ca “  like they look on re Syria, Libya and Yemen  “.  Ceea ce lasa sa se inteleaga ca , data fiind concentrarea atentiei diplomatiei internationale ( mai ales a Rusiei si SUA ) in alte regiuni de conflict, o evolutie catre ofensiva generala catre Mariupol este posibila. Ceea ce credem si noi, mai ales ca Rusia este imbarcata intr-un efort constant  de a atinge obiective foarte ambitioase la nivel sistemic, iar criza ucraineana este doar un instrument in acest sens. Intre aceste obiective ambitioase urmarite de Moscova se cer amintite constructia unei noi arhitecturi de securitate in Europa ( practic, o noua balanta a puterii pe batranul continent in care Rusia sa detina un rol insemnat, asadar control asupra Ucrainei ), dar si urgenta concentrarii atentiei pe alte zone de interes strategic , cum ar fi aria Pacificului sau Orientul Mijlociu . Nu mai putin situatia interna – caderea rublei, inrautatirea insemnata si continua a tabloului economic- obliga Kremlinul la o “salvare” in exterior care sa atenueze tensiunile sociale in crestere.
( See : http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/12/ukraine-s-cold-war-gets-hot-as-combat-explodes-in-the-last-24-hours.html  ).
 
 
 
Mihail E. Ionescu
 
          13 august 2015
 

Comentarii

Nu exista niciun comentariu

Postarea comentariilor dupa trei luni a fost dezactivata.