F L A S H August 6, 2015 | publicatii - Politica La Est

F L A S H August 6, 2015

Since several years I have benefitted from  mail-sent messages of RSIS, that is products of the S. Rajaratnam School of Interntional Studies, NTU (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore ). I  didn’t reproduced up to now any of its products which I have received , although the expeditor is generous enough to offer this possibility. Of course, it was not because they are not interesting, on the contrary they are among the best analysis which I know  about the development of the events in the region. But I have considered that this site ( politicalaest.ro ) is destined to convey to the readers their own products , which implicitly are profiting for the inputs offered by RSIS’s analysis. Today, I am reversing my  position taken into account two facts: firstly that I have opened this section of the site which gives the possibility of informing the readers about the new analysis which are worthy to be known entirely according to their choice ( that is „Flash„  ); secondly,  because I intend frequently to let our readers to know  about the RSIS’s products due to their application to the reality and unbelievable pieces of informations they are offering. So, by that way , I am informing RSIS, whom I am obliged to address a formal request to reproduce their products that I have opted for sending the readers to the original only stressing some of points of interest  in their selected essays- so it is not a reproduction per se - , and as well I am proposing for the readers of that site a fertile source of analysis and opinions for their best knowldge of the events of Asian developments ( and not only ).
         For the first offer I have been attracted by what has ussualy been considered as the frozen field, close to any change: the monarchies of the Gulf (James M Dorsey,Yemen Conflict and Arab Uprising: Regional Fissures and Repercussions  ). Firstly, about Saudi Arabia. As we know, since March, Saudi Arabia is bombing Houthi rebel forces in Yemen, with mixed results. As a result of support of Saudi-trained ground forces for the exiled president Abd Rabbah Mansour Hadi, port Aden has entered in the possession of the rebels last month. But the four months long campaign in Yemen , conceived and implemented by the Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia, the powerful Mohammed Bin Salman, son of the King Salman,it seems  had sparked a rift within the Saudi royal family. Alongside the theory that defeating the Houthi camp will not solve the issue, and the rebels will remain a danger to the Suadi Arabia border with Yemen, there is an unease concerning the reliance of King Salmon on his other son,  Prince Mohamed bin Nayef,  who acumulated the jobs of Minister of Interior ,  Crown Prince and First Deputy Prime Minister and Chairman of the Political and Security Affairs Council. The author claimed that „The ascent of King Salman, along with Mohamed bin Nayef and Mohamed bin Salman as Crown Princes, affirm the return of the Sudairi branch of the family of Ibn Saud (King Abdul Aziz bin Abdul Rahman Ibn Saud), the founder of the Saudi kingdom, following the decade-long reign of King Abdullah. He had succeeded King Fahd, the first of the Sudairi Seven, while two other brothers, Sultan and Nayef, died as Crown Princes. Salman is the second Sudairi to be king”. Based on a recent inc ident, namely the  other member of that family ( Sultan Bin Turki)   submitted a complaint in a Swiss court concerning   his abduction several years ago, author thinks that these are signs of fissures within the royal family which could be an incentive for instability and political tension in that kingdom : „Though he is from the same Sudairi lineage as the king and his two crown princes, as well as King Fahd’s son, Sultan bin Turki could represent a group of dissenting members of the ruling family who resent the concentration of power in the Salman and Nayef clans.”
         More than that, in the Emirates are also signs of instability. The author affirms that : „reports surfaced that a senior prince in the UAE, with the backing of several younger members of the ruling Al Nahyan family, had allegedly plotted in 2010 to overthrow the country’s leaders and transform the autocratic Gulf state into a constitutional monarchy. The UAE is ruled by the eldest son of the founder, Sheikh Khalifa bin Shekih Zayed Al Nahyan, and his 10 brothers and half-brothers with Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed as the strongman.” Giving some credible details of that plot , the author underlined also the inscrutability of political arena  in these secretive fiefdom of leading families which is open to any unexpected developments that could affect entire region. The existance of that fissures within the leading families are signs that the young population of the mini-states in the region and also in Saudi Arabia, which are the majority in that frozen societies,  has began to assert itself asking for more political  participation and transparency. In the analysis is  underlined that  „The emergence of fissures in secretive ruling families takes on added significance at a time that they are seeking to repress dissent. Saudi Arabia last month arrested hundreds of alleged supporters of Islamic State (IS) while the UAE this week announced that they were putting on trial 41 people charged with seeking to overthrow the government. „  The threat of Daesh has arrived close to these secretive states and , in  spite of their manouvers, including supporting the caliphate to act in other parts of the Mideast,  their leaders will have to face it . As the author concludes: „The recent cracks in the Saudi ruling family as well as earlier dissent by Prince Sultan and the UAE’s Sheikh Hamdan suggest that the autocratic rule of Gulf families is being challenged, and has been for a longer period of time, by a minority that so far has successfully been outmanoeuvred. Nonetheless, it raises questions about the solidity of Gulf rule as the oil-rich states of the region confront multiple political and security challenges.”  ( See: James M Dorsey , Yemen Conflict and Arab Uprising: Regional Fissures and Repercussions  -No. 163-4 august 2015- www.rsis.edu.sg )
Mihail E. Ionescu


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